SYDNEY Only a miracle can save Australian Prime Minister John Howard in a year-end election as disaffected conservative voters abandon him and the Labor opposition entrenches its lead in polls, analysts said on Saturday.

Gary Morgan, whose midweek Morgan poll had Labor ahead by eight points, said Howard's coalition had "zero" chance of winning a third consecutive term at expected November elections.

"A miracle is the only thing that would save them," Morgan told the ********* Sydney Morning Herald ******** newspaper.

Howard, prime minister since 1996 and in Parliament for over 25 years, has watched a recent groundswell rise against him.

His liberal/national coalition suffered two straight losses to Labor in state polls in western Australia and Queensland this month, punished over high fuel prices, a new 10 percent goods and services tax and free-market reforms that have hit rural areas.

The state losses, which leave five of Australia's six states in Labor's hands, are widely seen as evidence of a relentless Labor tide that will wash the Howard government away.

The voter backlash is being driven by traditional coalition supporters in rural Australia battered by dairy deregulation, fuel tax increases and bank and telephone company privatization which have cut services and hurt farmers.

The heartland voters are shifting to the far-right One Nation Party, independents and others, eroding the tiny margin of votes by which the coalition won the last election in October 1998.

--------- Really Bad Loss ------

The groundswell now has Howard's backbenchers grumbling about the imminent defeat of their government, the ************ Herald ************* said.

"I think the election's lost. It's just a matter of the margin," the paper quoted one unidentified coalition MP as saying. "It could be a really bad election loss."

Labor, which won the popular vote in 1998 but lost the seat count, needs a swing of a mere 0.6 percentage point to win power.

The latest Reuters poll trend on Thursday showed the center-left Labor had maintained its lead in early February and enjoyed an almost five-point winning edge.

Analyzing three polls taken before the recent state elections, the Reuters poll trend showed coalition support was nearly 39 percent, unchanged from two weeks earlier. Support for Labor slipped to 43 percent from 44 percent in the period.

On a two-party preferred basis which best mimics Australia's voting system, Labor would win just over 53 percent of the vote compared with the coalition's 47 percent.

Analysts have said Howard must quell fears it will retreat on economic reform in the face of the voter backlash.

Howard did his best to allay those fears this week, vowing to maintain the government's commitment to economic reform.

"Anybody who stands up and says you can stop the process of globalization is not telling the truth," he said, while at the same time recognizing the tough electoral challenge ahead.

"It is my responsibility to face the reality of the present situation," Howard told a party gathering on Thursday.

(Reuter)